August 18, 2025 - Monday Touch Point
The August 18, 2025 Monday Touch Point highlighted strengthening pending sales momentum, with year-over-year pendings up 4.3%—the best daily reading of 2025. Inventory remains elevated at 6.26 months, with 17,528 active listings across the metro. Prices show a split market: luxury homes are appreciating while entry-level values soften. Mortgage rates near 6.6% are slightly easing affordability pressures, and upcoming Federal Reserve commentary could influence buyer sentiment. Agents were reminded that success depends on capturing market share in a competitive environment.
Market Trends: Signs of Stabilization in Austin Real Estate
The Austin real estate market continues to show encouraging movement as of mid-August 2025. Pendings have provided some of the most positive signals we’ve seen in months. For July, Austin recorded its strongest year-over-year increase in pending contracts for that month in over a decade. As of August 18, pending listings are up 4.3% compared to the same day last year, marking the best daily pending reading of 2025 so far. While cumulative pendings remain down year-to-date, the momentum from July into August suggests the market may have already passed its low point earlier in the year.
The New Listing-to-Pending Ratio
One of the most important leading indicators, the new listing-to-pending ratio, remains below balance. Currently, the ratio sits near 0.65, meaning for every 100 new listings, only about 65 are going under contract. This ratio reflects a market still tilted toward buyers, with inventory steadily accumulating. Over the past seven days, Austin saw 921 new listings, but only 237 pendings, leaving a 25% gap. Inventory continues to rise not just from new supply but also from properties returning to the market through withdrawals, expirations, or price reductions.
Pricing Outlook: A Split Market
Pricing trends show a bifurcated market. The median sold price stands at $455,000, down 8.3% compared to three years ago. However, the top 25% of the market—homes priced above $655,000—have appreciated 3.4% year-over-year, while the bottom quartile has slipped. This divergence illustrates how higher-end buyers are sustaining values, while affordability constraints weigh on entry-level properties. Overall, the average sold price remains up 1.4% year-to-date at $575,352, showing resilience despite inventory pressures.
Mortgage Rates and Buyer Activity
Rates remain a central factor. As of this week, 30-year conventional loans hover at 6.625%, while FHA and VA loans are closer to the low 6% range. While still elevated, these figures mark an improvement from earlier in the summer. The National Association of Homebuilders’ traffic index for prospective buyers has ticked up slightly to 22, representing a 10% improvement over last month, though buyer traffic remains historically weak. The bond market and upcoming Federal Reserve commentary at the Jackson Hole Symposium will be closely watched for further rate direction.
Inventory Levels and Regional Highlights
Active listings across the Austin metro stand at 17,528, which is 15.4% higher year-over-year. Months of inventory are now at 6.26, firmly in buyer’s market territory. Certain submarkets remain exceptionally tight, such as Manchaca with only 2.55 months of supply, compared to Burnet County and other outlying areas where supply exceeds 11 months. Regional variation underscores the need for hyper-local analysis when advising clients.
Agent Takeaways: Competing in a Crowded Field
With nearly 19,000 active realtors in the region, competition remains intense even as transactions slow. Roughly one home is selling per realtor so far in 2025, underscoring the importance of securing an “unfair share” of business through proactive client engagement and strategic positioning. Open house activity remains high, with over 360 conducted last week, showing that sellers are still willing to invest in exposure. Agents should continue using data-driven narratives to guide clients through pricing adjustments and market timing strategies.
Looking Ahead
August is shaping up to underperform compared to the strong pending activity seen in May, June, and July. Pendings are currently 50% lower year-over-year for the month-to-date, and closed sales are pacing 58% below last year’s levels. Still, daily readings suggest the worst of the slowdown may be behind us, with improving momentum on the pending side. Market participants should monitor next week’s Case-Shiller index release and broader economic data for further context, though local leading indicators like pendings and absorption ratios will remain the most reliable signals for Austin housing.
FAQs
Q1: What does the new listing-to-pending ratio mean for Austin buyers and sellers?
The ratio of 0.65 means that for every 100 new listings, only 65 are going under contract. Buyers have more leverage in negotiations, while sellers must price competitively to secure activity.
Q2: How do current mortgage rates affect Austin housing affordability?
At 6.625% for conventional loans, rates remain high historically but have improved slightly from summer peaks. This modest relief has supported pending sales growth in recent weeks.
Q3: Why are luxury homes performing better than entry-level homes in Austin?
High-income buyers face fewer affordability constraints and continue to drive demand at the top end, leading to 3.4% annual price appreciation. Meanwhile, entry-level homes face downward pressure due to tighter financing and affordability challenges.
Q4: How much inventory does Austin currently have?
Austin has 17,528 active listings, equating to 6.26 months of supply. This is well above balanced conditions, giving buyers greater choice and negotiating power.
Q5: Is the Austin real estate market recovering from its slowdown?
Yes, pendings are showing signs of recovery, up 4.3% year-over-year. However, monthly pendings are still down 50% compared to last August, meaning recovery is uneven and still developing.
